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Right on the money JM,
I've been checking back often to see if HuskyBlue replies to my post. Not only do I think the advice he gave is wreckless, I'm really challenging the performance he describes. I've been playing predominantly $5 and $6 SnG's since September and have not been able to comfortably move up to the next level. Over the course of 2000 or so games, I've experienced 15 or 25 buyin downswings (YES, that's $150+) at the $6 level and I've heard from others that this is commonplace.

I don't mean to turn this thread into an argument, but if HuskyBlue is really pulling off that kind of ROI, I REALLY want to pick his brain & I'll pay for the help.

Ok, seriously, a $500 bankroll is certainly not 'giant' for playing NL25. I play NL25 and I have over $2k in my roll right now.

Grinding out 30buyins at NL10 is not going to take that long. To me, 'crushing' NL10 would probably be about 15+bb/100. I sustained 19bb/100 over a 50k hand sample some time last year when I first moved to fullring from 6max. Without playing a crazy amount of tables you can easily get in 300 hands per hour, so $1.50 * 3 = $4.50 per hour. Depending on how much volume you're putting in this can take a couple of months, but it is'nt forever.

People often think that this game is simpler than it actually is, and they're usually the ones that end up going busto and blaming it 'donks' who never fold or make accusations like 'omfgwtf this site is sooooo rigged'.

I'm sorry but your second point about not getting better if you don't start playing better players is simply not true. This implies that you should be focusing on outplaying the better players at the table. Any player at any level should be focusing on extracting value from the fish. This is something that you will always be doing, and therefore always improving at. Extracting value is goes far deeper than simply betting top pair on every street. Opportunities to get thin value out of weaker hands from bad players come up very frequently, and developing your understanding of villains calling ranges, and betsizing WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER PLAYER.

Your last point: "Good players become great players by playing better players" was well put. However it's not really applicable here. Most of us here are still working on becoming 'good'.

'New players become GOOD players by grinding, studying, and learning how to value bet'.

I'm sure $125 swings are very common if you're mass tabling and playing 10+ tables at a time. I don't mass table cash games. In fact, I rarely play cash games so perhaps my strategy does not have cross game application.

In regards to my own bankroll management. The most i've ever really lost in one session is probably around 120 bucks or 4 consecutive SnGs. After losing 4 straight games in 3 hrs, I'm tilted and remove myself from my computer for at least a day, depending on my tilt. Let's say I get back on w/ 80-100 dollars left in my account, I drop down to $10 dollar 9 seaters, or 12 dollar 6 seates (probably the 12 dollar games b/c they are very soft at the sites i play) and approach it like this: I know I can win them. I've cracked them consistently in the past and know I can do it again. If I can't get top 2 and cash for positive ROI in one out of 8 of these, well then fuck I suppose i'll have to re-deposit. But i have never gone a total of 12 consecutive SnG's without cashing. And that is what i would have had to do to bust my roll.

Yea well 500 for you would be very inadequate as you're a super mass tabler. I can't even fathom playing 20 tables at a time, I struggle w/ 4 simultaneously. That's just incredible. Playing 20 tables would use up your entire 500 dollars and then you'd put urself in a very difficult position and NEED to win just to survive.

But if you're playing 2 tables at a time 25NL, what's the big deal? You're investing 50 and have room to lose.

'New players become GOOD players by grinding, studying, and learning how to value bet'.
Thats the key.

This isn't a forum for calling people liars or prooving stats. It's about developing yourself by making yourself think about situations you encounter on a daily basis.

I have played poker for 3years as an enthusiast. (daily!)
I have had dreams of making a quick buck/glamour lifestyle
won $5k playing 1/2blinds nl 6max & 20/50sngs/some 100's
thought I was good
gone broke (4 times)
not respected the fundamentals

right now I am here
'New players become GOOD players by grinding, studying, and learning how to value bet'
grinding low stakes, practising good disiplined bankroll managment and study time. and only now really understanding why poker players say these skills are the most important

Multitabling does not have a direct effect on your variance. It can have an effect on you winrate. Your variance is a function of your winrate and your style of play. I'm sure that if I only 1 tabled, I could double my bb/100 (as long as I didn't tilt from pure boredom!) and my variance would be less than it is because my winrate was greater, not because I'm playing less tables. My reasoning for pointing this out, is that a person playing 1 table with the same winrate as me when I'm playing 20 tables will theoretically experience the same swings.

In my timeline I will see these swings more frequently because I'm putting in so much volume, but somebody with the same winrate as me who is 1 tabling will experience the same swings just as frequently over a given sample. Its just that the 1 tabling guy might only encounter a downswing a couple of times a year.

To simplify what I'm trying to say here is variance is relative to sample size and anything under 100k hands or 20k SNG's is probably too small a sample to draw any concrete conclusions.

Somebody who plays less than 4 tables such as yourself, who hasn't yet experienced some hardcore variance is probably because you haven't
built up a decent sample size yet.

I've had 5k hand sessions, where I've gotten set over set twice, KK vs AA a few times and bam, you're down 5 buyins just like that. Add in a couple of half stack fish rivering 2 pair against your top pair top kicker and boom 6buyins easy, by playing well. We all make mistakes when we play, so add i a buy-in or 2 due to bad calls or tilt and now you've just had a 8 buy-in downswing over a paltry 5k hand sample.

If this can happen in cash games, then it WILL happen in SNG's. One day huskyblue, actually no, one week or month in your poker career, you'll lose all your coinflips, and your Aces will always get cracked, and your sets will always be rivered by straights and flushes. Nobody is immune to this. If you ask any knowledgable person, they will tell you that theoretically you will go broke in the long run with your approach to bankroll management.

Bankroll management is much more important to pro poker players because it is their profession and *not* their hobby, therefore they tend to give solid advice on bankroll limits. They experience the consequences of poor bankroll decisions in the worse way possible: getting totally tapped out. It is a horrible feeling but not the end of the world.

For many poker players who are "amateur poker players", bankroll management is more of an academic debate, but it should not be.

It is part of the game and an important part of the game because bankroll management requires that essential skill: discipline. Playing way outside your bankroll just to "take a shot" once in a while is fine. Deciding to play up three or four levels all at once with an insufficient bankroll is reckless and bad strategy.

"Recklessness" and "bad strategy" are both things you do not want to encourage as part of your poker development.

I am clearly an amateur poker player, but I also clearly want to improve. So welcome "no 4 kin chance" and you have a good question.

You have played 500 Sng's and made some $50, so you have an earn rate at the level you play. SNG require a bigger bankroll to move up a level so do what you are doing for a little while more.

Since your bankroll is only $270 you are taking a real risk jumping up fulltime to the $5 SNG.

Once you have built your bankroll to $600, you can probably very safely make a switch up to $3. I realize that this means you are risking half a percent of your bankroll which seems conservative but it also gives you the practice you need to move up.

Variance is an academic concept to most players and particulary amateur poker players like myself. It is very real to professional poker players. When a pro player talks about variance, they are probably right because they live it.

In SNG, as you move up in limits you will be facing players with headsup software to help them make decisions. The use of Pokertracker and some sort of software is going to be necessary and you can ask the pros on this forum for help in that.

Keep playing, build up your bankroll until you can make a natural step up to $3.

__________________
flintsword

"The lucky player is usually the player that knows how much to leave to chance."

Blog www.myspace.com/flintsword