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Old October 6th, 2008, 11:06 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Wheels Turning To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

The knee-jerk reaction is - of course - "bad players". It is - equally of course - completely wrong IMHO.

Once you answer the question: "Where is the money?" you understand.

Where is the serious money?

The money is at the higher stakes.

To get to the higher stakes you have to become a better poker player.

To become a better player you have to play against good players to develope and hone your skills.

Therefore you make way more money playing against good players.

Now there is nothing wrong with someone mastering a certain level and staying there "harvesting" the bad players and bringing home a couple of hundred a night ... nothing wrong with that at all.

If you want to make real money, you develop your skill and "compete". You push the envelop at higher limits with good bankroll management and in time, it is a couple of thousand a night.

You want to make money? It is completely clear that the big money is in the skilled poker player higher limits.

If you have decided that you have reached your limit, and your purpose in life is to hammer away at the torsks in a game that you can beat, then by all means do that. There is nothing wrong with that.

After all, the system needs poker players like that (who are established in certain limits) because you will meet three types of opponents:

... Seriously Improving & better players will pwn you on the way up to higher limits (a minority, say 5%)

... Players your poker strength will meet you at this level to compete and maybe improve. (say 45%)

... Torsks & the hideously clueless players will spend entertainment dollars to play. (easily 50%+)

The real money is joined at the hip with real poker skills.

Don't worry, on the way up improving your skills you will meet plenty of Torsks because there is one thing I have found true in poker ... just because someone has a lot of money, it does not mean he is a fantastic poker player.

A young internet poker player recently proved this maxim (again because it happens every day) last August 1st and emailed me his hand histories when he decided to take a shot at the Pot Limit Omaha $10/$20 level, way above his normal hunting grounds (PLO $2/$4). He "bagged" over $7,000 in this little heads up encounter. I recorded it my Blog for August 1st if you are interested.

This is a Poker Forum ... and you want to encourage discussion.

I completely respect poker players that make the decision to play at a lower level ... it is their choice, but you have to admit a good poker player will make a lot more money as a better player at a higher limit than as a mediocre player at a lower limit. To become better you have to play beter players.

I hope this point of view has been helpful and good luck in your games.
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Old October 7th, 2008, 03:46 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

Very thought provoking, Flintsword. In my short poker career (1 1/2 years), I've learned much about the game. I'm no longer the absolute novice and my desire to improve is what keeps me interested in the game. I want to move up, but when does one know it's time to do so? Must you destroy the competition at your current level, or just hopelessly dominate them? Where must one's bankroll be when you decide to move up to challenge yourself against the better players?, i.e., how "in the black" does one need to be?

I'm not yet in the black myself...my leaks still eventually deplete my bankroll, although it is at a MUCH slower loss rate than say, 12 months ago. Interestingly, I now routinely win money in the games I play...but my lost hands are generally large pots. I continue to patch my leaks, mostly through books, hand history reviews and forum input, but I wonder what else should I be doing? Poker Office? WPT Bootcamp? Hire a poker coach?

I get frustrated sometimes because I know I'm a hundred-fold better than I used to be and I'm a better player than many others at my current level of play, but yet my ROI is still a minus and I'm still a fish.

Signed,

Still Swimming in Florida
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Old October 7th, 2008, 01:59 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

Here's a simple, general tip I offer: Don't be greedy!

We've already discussed how ineffective your min raise was w/ your AA on a previous thread. Admittedly, you conceded that the lure of the nut flush clouded your judgement and facilitated your defeat. You wanted to win the monster pot instead of settling for an average, safe one.

Too often I see people make similiar mistakes. Unfortunately these mistakes sometimes pay out and result in a monster and actually convince the player that it was the correct way to play the hand when in fact, simple money-in-ahead poker was the best play.

We all dream of glorious double ups w/ the nuts, but need to remember that poker is an endurance race, not a sprint. Be content with moderate pots. Raise hard, don't allow odds to chase, get your money in when you know you're ahead. Sure, adding 20% more chips isn't as sexy as 100%, but nothing is more upsetting when you get sucked out on and realize it was b/c you underplayed your winning hand.

Besides, if you consistently play smart, aggressive post-flop poker you'll expose the impatient dream chasesr who call you down and miss their 34% to win. You'll rake your big pot and embarass them. Beautiful.
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Old October 7th, 2008, 07:07 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Wheels Turning Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

Glad to hear my post made you think. You are not a fish ... you are an "improving player" ... and this is an important position to take if only for your self-respect.

Understand that you are - in essence - paying for your poker lessons with your negative "Burn Rate". Glad to hear you are moving towards an "Earn Rate".

You 'move up' to the next level once your "Earn Rate" for that level is either solidly positive for an extended period of time (for some people a few weeks, for others six months ) or just to "take a shot". Ahem ... if the higher level tosses you into the snow with outtrousers ... back you go to your regular level.

You do not have to "destroy the competition at your current level", just beat it on a regular basis. Keep in mind that you should identify and avoid those raising weasels that inject so much variance into the game that you need a bigger bankroll just to survive.

For my Tournament Poker bankroll, I always play qualifiers under the idea that until you build a serious Tournament bankroll, you have to be cheap. Also ... it is great practice!

For my Cash Game Bankroll I have a budget to get past a certain level and regularly drop down a level if the going gets tough. I recently got my ass handed to me when I tackled the $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi game but hey ... I was taking a shot and testing my play at a igher level . Now of course I am rebuilding my PLO bankroll.

Don't worry about being "in the black" ... instead measure your "Earn Rate" currently. I bet your current (3 month) "Earn Rate" is positive but your long-term is negative ... only because of past losses.

You say, "Interestingly, I now routinely win money in the games I play...but my lost hands are generally large pots."

This is an important observation. Cut out some time and start looking for all those large pots you lost ... you *will* see a pattern and that will improve your game. Without looking at them I predict they will all be out of position.

What else should you be doing?

You could do a lot worse than read all of Daniel Negreanu's articles (They are archived on Cardplayer.com) in order from the oldest to the newest. Entertainment AND instruction: tough to beat that!

You say, "I get frustrated sometimes because I know I'm a hundred-fold better than I used to be and I'm a better player than many others at my current level of play ... ".

Don't get frustrated and certainly don't compare yourself to others ... measure yourself to BETTER players. Look ... I baggged a huge prize last year but I do not fall into the trap of thinking I am a super-hot player. In fact, most poker players are hideous players, lurching from suckout to suckout, never giving the math, the control, and even table position more than a passing nod.

You really want to give your game an injection at the foundation? Sign up for an instructional site. I checked out Cardrunners but man oh man ... the Egos tap-dance non-stop on that site ... it is all about them, not you.

I signed on to Daniel Negreanu's site www.pokervt.com and have to say it is outstanding. Take the quiz for free ... that will bring your poker world crashing down ... it did for me ... I scored so low I was checking my neck for gills .

Still swimming in the Pacific ...
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Last edited by flintsword; October 8th, 2008 at 12:57 PM..

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Old October 7th, 2008, 10:44 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

This is probably a statement I'm going to have to disagree with you on. You always want to be playing the worser (if thats a word ...) players. This objective doesn't change at higher limits, your opportunities just become more limited, and degree's of skill become more even. But, there ARE bad players at all limits. At the highest limits, you want to take advantage of those who are taking a shot, or those who probably believe they are better than they are. However, you also look to avoid playing the "better" players, because there just isn't money to be made from them in the long run.

Look at the highest stakes online. You will routinely see players flock to a table, while on the other 5-tables the same guys are just sitting out against each other.

I see many many players devlope this kind of princess syndrome, where they believe 'to be the best, you have to play the best'. That may be true. But in poker, your objective shouldn't be to be the best. It should be to be the most profitable you can be.

Bankroll permitting is not a reason in itself to move up a level. You have to be sure that this new limit will also give you the opportunity to maximise your hourly rate.

Example: I can 24-table .10/.25 for 3.5-4 BB/100. This gives me a better hourly rate than probably >95% of .5/1 players who 5-table or less.

While that is a hidden brag, its also just to make the point - higher limits doesn't always mean a higher $/hr.

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Old October 8th, 2008, 12:57 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

This is an ongoing and old argument in poker: "net the fish" or "become a shark" For some people, it is all about the money and that is a totally legit position to take.

That said, for a lot of people, money is a secondary consideration but remains important. I used to play poker when there were only a few poker rooms on the strip in Las Vegas, and the Mirage opening was considered odd because they opened with a huge, luxurious area for poker.

There is short term money and long term money:

In short term money, you have an good earn rate, "it aint broke, so I don't fix it" . Fair enough.

In long term money, you hone your poker skills and improve so that you can make some serious cash, without belittling solid poker returns at lower limits. It takes work and - yes - it takes a real interest in improving your game. It is also (invariably) costly because you get beaten back so many times as you move up.

Both ideas are AOK. Your earn rate BTW is excellent, congrats.

I push the envelope in both cash play and tournaments, partly because I really enjoy playing. I have a group of friends that are very good poker players, much better than I am now, and I am partly motivated to bring my game to their level.

When I am in Vegas, I am continually impressed by that loose affiliation of retired older men and women that have developed their game to a very high level, and roll into the lower limits of poker play, usually limit, and bag a few hundred every day like clockwork before heading off to golf or meet their wives or husbands somewhere. They don't want to enter a level where the pressure increases and the decisions get tough because their poker game "ain't broke, so no need to fix it".

That said, equally impressive are the people that strive to improve their game, despite building up six figure bankrolls, aiming for the seven figure bankrolls. It is a lot of work.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:50 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

What is the best means to track my earn rate? I've avoided programs such as Poker Tracker and Poker Office, partly because I'm cheap ;). but more so because I don't want to become dependent on a computer to identify my strengths and weaknesses. Perhaps this line of thinking is a weakness in itself; Perhaps it's time to change my line...comments or suggestions are welcome:)
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Old October 8th, 2008, 10:20 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

Quote:
Originally Posted by ertrauma View Post
What is the best means to track my earn rate? I've avoided programs such as Poker Tracker and Poker Office, partly because I'm cheap ;). but more so because I don't want to become dependent on a computer to identify my strengths and weaknesses. Perhaps this line of thinking is a weakness in itself; Perhaps it's time to change my line...comments or suggestions are welcome:)
PokerTracker or the like. Obviously you can track it yourself (by recording the time of your sessions, hands played, profit etc) then putting it into a spreadsheet working out your BB/100 and $/Hr, but PokerTracker does it all and more for you so easily.

You can get a PokerTracker 3 60 day trial atm for free. Take a look. Also you can usually find deals to get them for free. ie I remember if you deposited onto Party and played a certain amount of hands you got PokerOffice for free.

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Old October 9th, 2008, 01:09 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

Flintsword. Nice to see you post on the this forum. You will be a great addition. Now I can read your write ups. As you have read many of mine. Keep up the good work. This is in code HsH.

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Old November 5th, 2008, 05:10 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: To make money: Play worse poker players or better poker players

Surely though - one argument for playing better players rather than worse players, is that you should (in theory) reduce the level of random play which can plague the lower stakes/buy-ins?

Not that I would know, as its these waters that my fish-ass swims in :)

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