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Old August 15th, 2008, 05:31 PM   #5 (permalink)
flintsword flintsword is offline
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New Post Re: Bad play or bad beat. You decide!

Well, when he calls you on the flop, he is either the world's greatest optimist with a flush draw, holds 55, or has Qx where x>9. I think that AA or KK would reraise to define their hand, but this is too linear to be counted on today. Maybe JJ?

Looks to me that on the turn you should make the decision to reraise all in . If he played Q5 or Q7 ... ... well good luck to him and you are going to make a lot of money playing him.

Calling gives him a free chance to hit his kicker because in fact he has made a blocking bet to price in the cost of a river card. Charge him more for that river card IMHO.

Reraising tells him you have AQ in a "brick in the face" sort of way, or 77, or 55. When you reraise all in, unless he has just stepped out of a lobotomy clinic, he "knows" he is drawing for three outs, will only win 6.8% of the time, and he should slink away with his tail between his legs by folding.

You play this hand with this guy 100 times when you reraise all in on the turn and if he calls every time you are going to be up over $58,000

[100 x (1 - 0.068) x (pot $677.50)] - [100 x 0.068 x (pot $677.50)] = $63,131 - 4,607 = $58,524

Turn: Stick it all in ... to cash in on the maximum fold equity.
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