Re: Restealing
Wow, great question. Rather than answer the question with numbers I'd like to give posters a few thoughts on how to approcah this kind of mathematical problem... if nobody feels like stepping up to try and solve over the next couple of days then I'll go for it!!
Will assume we are working with Chip-Equity here rather than $-Equity.
Firstly we need to estimate the 'unknown' of the % fold for villan. We can try a few different numbers in the final estimate to get a range - this can be approached in 2 ways:
1) We could assign a straight percentage probability that he folds... and then compare our hand's winning chances to his entire range
2) Or: We need to make an assumption that he calls with the top X% of his range, and work out our equity against this.
17BBs is a tricky stack size here, assuming that this is before posting the blind then the villan would see a re-shove price of his last 14 to win a 20.5 (so 3/2 meaning he needs to win 40% to break even against our restealing range - in terms of cEV at least).
Our potential reward is 4.5 BBs - the next step would be to use the fold estimate (whichever way around) and see how often we would win the pot uncontested and how often we would need to win a showdown... I like to break into 100 'attempts'
100 Resteals:
20 Times - Villan Folds, +4.5BBs
80 Times - Villan Calls
of which ------ X% +18.5BBs (we already gave up the blig blind)
------ Y% -16BBs and out!
There are some ideas - any volunteers to run the numbers, for those who do not use it you can get 'PokerStove' for free (a tool which compares hands and gives you % winning chances vs whatever range you apply).
As I say - if nobody fancies having a crack at this one I will post it in a couple of days... BTW, the ability to 'know' what to do in many situations just like this (as opposed to 'going with your gut instinct' is what separates the long term winners from the rest of the field!!)
Cheers, Mark | 
